If you have heard about the 8th Pay Commission and want to know what it actually means for your salary, you are in the right place.

One number determines everything — your new basic pay, your HRA, your TA, your arrears, and even your pension. That number is called the Fitment Factor. Right now, three figures are being discussed most heavily: 1.92, 2.57, and 2.86. Each one leads to a completely different salary outcome for lakhs of central government employees.

This post explains what the fitment factor is, how it is decided, what each scenario means for your pocket, and which one experts consider most likely.

1. What Is the Fitment Factor? (Simple Explanation)

The fitment factor is a single multiplier number that the Pay Commission applies to your current 7th CPC basic pay to arrive at your new 8th CPC basic pay.

Every other benefit — HRA, TA, pension, gratuity, and arrears — is calculated on top of this new basic pay. This is why the fitment factor is the most important number in the entire pay revision exercise.

2. How Is the Fitment Factor Decided?

The Pay Commission does not pick the fitment factor randomly. It is calculated using a combination of the following factors:

• Accumulated Dearness Allowance (DA): The most critical anchor. When DA is high, a minimum fitment factor is automatically set to absorb it. With DA expected at 60% from January 2026, the floor for the 8th CPC fitment factor is at least 1.60.
• Inflation (Consumer Price Index): Rising prices over the past 10 years demand higher compensation.
• Government’s Fiscal Capacity: The government must balance salary costs against the budget. A high fitment factor means higher expenditure across all ministries and departments.
• Employee Union Demands: Unions formally submit their desired fitment factor to the Commission during the consultation phase.
• Economic Conditions: GDP growth rate and government revenue projections heavily influence what the government can afford.

3. The Three Scenarios Explained

Scenario A — Fitment Factor 1.92 (Conservative / Government Preference)

This is the scenario analysts believe the government is leaning toward, based on its fiscal position and the fact that DA at 60% already provides significant relief. A fitment factor of 1.92 means a 92% increase over your current basic pay.

Scenario B — Fitment Factor 2.57 (Same as 7th CPC)

Some experts suggest the 8th CPC may simply repeat the 7th CPC’s 2.57 fitment factor, since the underlying DA situation is comparable. This would be seen as a safe, precedent-based decision that is easy for the government to defend.

Scenario C — Fitment Factor 2.86 (Union Demand / Optimistic)

This is the number that employee unions — including the National Council of JCM — are formally demanding. If granted, it would be the largest salary hike in Pay Commission history in percentage terms. Minimum basic pay would jump from ₹18,000 to ₹51,480.

4. All Three Scenarios Side by Side (Level 1 to Level 7)

5. Impact on Pension

Pension for central government retirees is calculated as 50% of the last drawn basic pay. This means the fitment factor directly doubles the pension impact. Here is what pensioners can expect under each scenario:

6. Which Fitment Factor Is Most Likely?

Based on past trends, analyst projections, and the government’s budget position, here is an honest assessment: