TOPIC: DA Hike Jan 2026
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DATA: AICPI Nov 2025 (148.2)
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VERDICT: 60% Confirmed
Expected DA Hike Jan 2026: AICPI Data Confirms 60% Milestone; Eyes on Budget for 8th CPC
⚡ Quick Read & Navigation:
🤖 Quick Verdict: How much salary hike?
Based on the latest November 2025 AICPI Data (148.2), the DA score has reached 59.93%.
• Expected Hike: 2% (From current 58% to 60%).
• Effective Date: January 1, 2026 (Arrears to be paid in March).
• Probability: 99% Confirmed. Even if the index drops in Dec, 60% is locked.
The Labour Bureau has released the critical AICPI-IW data for November 2025. With an increase of 0.5 points, the index has reached 148.2. This number virtually guarantees that Central Government Employees will see their Dearness Allowance (DA) touch the 60% mark.
1. The Calculation: How We Reached 60%
The DA formula is based on the 12-month average of the AICPI-IW index. Here is the data trajectory:
| Month | AICPI Index | DA Calculator Score |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | 146.5 | 58.53% |
| August 2025 | 147.1 | 58.94% |
| September 2025 | 147.3 | 59.29% |
| October 2025 | 147.7 | 59.58% |
| November 2025 | 148.2 | 59.93% (Rounds to 60%) |
| December 2025 | Pending | (Likely 60%+) |
*Source: Labour Bureau Press Release (31 Dec 2025). DA is paid in whole numbers.
2. The “4% Hike” Rumor Trap
⚠️ Don’t Expect a 4% Hike
Many channels are clicking-baiting a 4% hike for Jan 2026. This is mathematically unlikely.
- The Math: To reach 61% (a 3% hike), the December Index needs to jump by a massive 3-4 points.
- The Reality: Inflation has stabilized. A 2% Hike (taking DA to 60%) is the realistic figure. Plan your finances accordingly.
3. Budget 2026: The “8th Pay Commission” Trigger?
With the Union Budget (Feb 1, 2026) approaching, the 60% DA milestone is a strong indicator that the pay structure needs revision. Key expectations:
- 8th CPC Announcement: Unions are demanding the formation of the commission now.
- Standard Deduction: High expectation to increase the limit to ₹1,00,000.
- Fitment Factor: Any mention of revision would be major news.
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Data Source: Labour Bureau AICPI-IW (Base 2016=100).
Disclaimer: Final DA rate subject to Union Cabinet approval in March 2026.